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In January, Scott Hogan, a striker bought for £750, 000 from Rochdale in 2014, was sold to Aston Villa for a reported £15 million in the middle of a hot streak. In the last two years, Brentford have sold significant players in January, when the club recognised there was little chance of either winning promotion or being relegated and viewed the remainder of the season as a good time to incorporate new players. Brentford sold Scott Hogan to Aston Villa for a massive profit. Malcolm Couzens/Getty ImagesIt is not just in scrapping their academy and their approach to transfers that Brentford are an unusual club.
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Brentford have the confidence to take a long-term view and not allow football's inherent randomness to cloud the club's analysis. "We don't look so much at the league table position when we evaluate performance. What we look at are the underlying metrics, which we believe are a better indication of where we are going and how we've done, " Ankersen says.
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Tony Marshall/Getty Images"That made us realise that, hey, it's an unfair game, " Ankersen told Bleacher Report. "We can't just be on the same playing field as everyone else and doing the same thing, because it's going to cost us a lot of money, and the compensation for those players is not significant.
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They also measure success differently, not by the league table, but by Ankersen's "table of justice, " a variant of the expected goals model. This is informed by the belief that, because football is such a low-scoring sport—the average game has 2. 7 goals, compared to over 200 points in basketball—luck is very important. As The Numbers Game notes, favourites win only 65 percent of football matches but 80 percent of basketball games.
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